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I am writing to relay some thoughts conveyed to me to someone close to the SCR debates in New York. The questions below are mine. The answers are not verbatim; they should therefore not be quoted, just taken as an informed opinion. Colin Rowat *********************************************** Coordinator, Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq http://welcome.to/casi *********************************************** 393 King's College www.cus.cam.ac.uk/~cir20 Cambridge CB2 1ST tel: +44 (0)468 056 984 England fax: +44 (0)870 063 4984 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q1. How likely is it that Iraq will implement a new SCR of the form being discussed? A1. If there is consensus in the Security Council Iraq will implement it. Otherwise, Iraq can take advantage of "splits" in the Security Council. Remember that Iraq didn't implement SCR 986 [oil-for-food] for a year. The goal of the debates is therefore to develop consensus, not to please Iraq. Consensus means all 15 votes in favour; abstentions by the Permanent 5 are second best. This is why Russia had indicated, before the delay, that it had planned to abstain. Consensus takes time, though, and the British seem not to understand this in their rush for a resolution while they've got the Presidency of the Council. Q2. What's in it for Iraq? A2. Attempting the SCR would move Iraq back into the regional power structure somewhat. Syria and Israel seem to be dominating the agenda recently, marginalising Iraq. If weapons inspectors return to Iraq it's given a trigger whereby it can trigger crises again and make its voice heard. Q3. Can Iraq trust the US to abide by the SCR? A3. Iraq will seek to implement it as half-heartedly as possible. Q4. What's driving the US position? A4. [Some factors include:] It's been estimated that Iraq could be producing 4.5 billion barrels of oil / day within 5 years of a suspension of sanctions. This would reduce Saudi Arabia's ability to export, and hence to service its debts to the US (for aviation, infrastructure and the Gulf War). The US wants to protect its Saudi allies, as well as the role that it's carved for itself in the Gulf over the past decade. -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk Full archive and list instructions are available from the CASI website: http://welcome.to/casi