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RE: [casi] bombs and such



> I was wondering if any of you nuclear physicists might know
> whether or not SH
> would have to conduct N-tests prior to having a functioning bomb.
>  I received
> good info from Glen R. on the aluminum tubes, but was thinking that if
> nuclear tests were required then geological 'listening' stations
> would pick it up...yes? No?

I hope that an economist's opinion will serve as a stop gap:

1. I would imagine that, like anything else, testing and practice give one
more confidence in something's functioning.  If a bomb is obtained from
abroad, then one may still wish to test to ensure that it isn't a dud.  Of
course, after a bomb's been tested, it can't be reused.

2. the 'advantage' of possessing nuclear weapons is largely felt to be a
deterrent one: states hold them, hoping that this ensure that they don't
have to use them.  For this to work, one must be known to hold them.  This
may have been a central purpose behind the India and Pakistan tests.  Iraq's
case is slightly different: would a test, assuming possession, cause the US
to back off or would it generate support for a US attack?

3. I don't know how sensitive seismic equipment is, but there seems to be a
lot of confidence in its ability to detect nuclear explosions.  Seismic data
seem to be what clinched the case against Gwynne Robert's claim that the
Iraqi government tested a nuclear bomb after the Iran war.

Best,

Colin Rowat

work | Room 406, Department of Economics | The University of Birmingham |
Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK | web.bham.ac.uk/c.rowat | (+44/0) 121 414 3754 |
(+44/0) 121 414 7377 (fax) | c.rowat@bham.ac.uk

personal | (+44/0) 7768 056 984 (mobile) | (+44/0) 7092 378 517 (fax) |
(707) 221 3672 (US fax) | c.rowat@espero.org.uk


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