FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION
OF THE UNITED NATIONS
IN IRAQ
ADVERSE EFFECT OF THE DROUGHT ON
DOMESTIC FOOD PRODUCTION
DURING 1998/1999
in Iraq
Baghdad
May, 1999
ADVERSE EFFECT OF THE DROUGHT ON
DOMESTIC FOOD PRODUCTION
DURING 1998/1999 in Iraq
1. Background
Central and South
A 50-96 per cent decrease in rainfall during 98/99 winter season has caused complete failure in germination of about 70% in the rainfed areas, and very low yields (expected) in the remaining 30%. This is equivalent to a loss of wheat and barley production of 37% and 63% of the annual average respectively.
The situation was already grave in the irrigated areas because of water logging and salinisation due to failing drainage pumps, decrease in supply of irrigation water, frequent power cuts, and breakdowns in the irrigation systems resulting from lack of replacement and maintenance. Problems are compounded further by very low flows in the two main rivers and low supply levels in reservoirs, especially in the Tigris Basin, where flows are the lowest since recording started in the 1930s. The situation in Euphrates River basin is also not encouraging. Water resources for the period October '98 - April '99 as shown in Tabe (1) were only 43% of the average for the same months. Moreover, the water shortage beside the summer cropping season of 1999 will also severely affect irrigation in the forthcoming winter cropping, in 1999. The very low rainfall is the main cause for the lowering of water tables and drying up of irrigation wells, thus further reducing the availability of water for irrigation. In addition low flows will lead to an increase in salinity intrusion in the Shatt El-Arab and adjacent groundwater tables and most likely also in the lower reaches of the rivers.
Table -1 Quantities of water in selected major Rivers during
the winter cropping season 1998/1999
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Ti gris - at Mosul |
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Upper Zap |
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Lower Zap |
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Diyala |
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Total |
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Source: MOA effect of adverse climatic condition on agricultural production during the 1998/99, - Winter Season - Baghdad April 1999
The situation is aggravated by the rise in temperature. Maximum and minimum monthly temperatures for the period of October 1998 - March 1999 were higher than the general average and in some areas by 6 oC
Untreated effluent from malfunctioning sewage systems throughout the 15 governorates flows into rivers and poses an increasingly serious environmental hazard. Apart from Baghdad, pumping stations and treatment facilities are deteriorating rapidly because of delays in ordering and installation of the needed rehabilitation inputs. With regard to the constraints in the electricity sector, load shedding is likely to be more in 1999 than in 1998, thus aggravating the problems in the irrigated areas, where majority of the pumps are electrically (mains) operated without standby generators .
The Three Northern Governorates
The Three Northern Governorates have also experienced low and highly erratic rainfall, in time and space as well as increases in daily maximum temperatures up to the end of February 1998. Table (3) shows a comparison between the rainfall during the two last winter cropping seasons in Erbil.
The total rainfall in Erbil governorate during 1998-1999 cropping season amounted to 111.1mm., while for the same period during the previous season is 325.3mm.
Taking into consideration the linear relationship that exists between
rainfed cereal yield, and the amount of rainfall during the growing season,
Most of the crop stand were at wilting stage. Therefore, the yields of
the wheat and barley crops has been drastically reduced and have led, to
a total crop failure in the plains region.
Magnitude of the problem and proposed measures
Central and South
The drought has resulted in great damage to the agricultural production.
The damage is a direct consequence of the failure of rain which brought
about shortage of irrigation water and shortage of hydro-generated electricity
that led to frequent power cuts and rationing, as well as rise in temperature.
Estimated general damage in both rainfed and irrigated areas is shown in
Table (3):
Table 2- Estimated Damage in cereal cultivated areas during the cropping season 1998/1999 in the Center and South
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Wheat | Barley | Wheat | Barley | Wheat | Barley | Wheat | Barley | Wheat | Barley | |
Rainfed |
1279,8
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2427,5
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-
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269,6
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177,2
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1549,4
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2604,7
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Irrigated |
180,4
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60,1
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10,5
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83,1
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14,1
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58,2
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40,9
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332
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115,1
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Total |
1,460.0
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2487,6
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10,5
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352,7
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191,3
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58,2
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40,9
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1881,4
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2,719.8
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Table 3- Average Rainfall (mm) for 1997/1998-1998/1999 Agricultural Seasons in Erbil Governorate*
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September | October | November | December | January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August |
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*Source: Weather Station in Erbil
The drastic reduction in agricultural production during the 1998/1999 cropping seasons in both rainfed and irrigated areas is anticipated to have severe effects during the forthcoming season. The farmers who suffered great losses will have very little to supplement their food ration, and will be facing extreme difficulties in paying back their debt, as well as financing the purchase of needed input for the next season. Consequently, a reduction in the cultivated area is envisaged, if no remedial measures are taken.
Although Iraqi population is indiscriminately receiving food ration, it is evident, that most of the population relies on local production to supplement the ration, especially with regard to those items not included in the basket. Due to the reduction of agricultural production and envisaged reduction in vegetable and fruit supply, prices of agricultural products will increase and most of the complementary food items will be out of reach for a large part of the population.
Disproportion between livestock population and the amount of available fodder has already manifested. Fodder supply will continue to be critical during the coming nine months provided that drought conditions end by the next winter season.
The cereal prices particularly barley will increase and herders' ability to feed their animals will drastically reduce. Mortality rates of animals will be on the increase, while mass animal sale is envisaged with a drop in animal prices. The most herders vulnerable will be effected.
Lack of drinking water in remote pastures will lead to animal concentration at watering points or settlements, and this in turn will lead to overgrazing and environmental degradation, in and around such areas.
The Three Northern Governorates
Drastic reduction in the rainfall during the 1998-1999 seasons, coupled by increasing in temperatures during the cropping season had resulted in severe damage to winter crops and the growth of natural pastures.
The findings of FAO field surveys assessing the impact of the drought (Rainfall shortage) on cultivation of wheat and barley crops in the three Northern Governorates for 1998-1999 agricultural season, indicated that cultivated areas under wheat and barley have declined by 16.9% and 8.9%, respectively in comparison to the area cultivated during the agricultural season 1997-1998.
The survey clearly indicted that during the 1998-1999 season, 32% and 14% decreases of yields per donum for wheat and barley respectively are anticipated, in comparison to 1997/1998 season.
The drought will also adversely affect livestock and poultry production and health, as the availability of seed sources--natural pasture and cereal feed supplements of barley and wheat -- will be scarce. The transhumant livestock from the central to northern governorates, which are now at the level of 350,000 heads in Dohuk governorate, will further reduce the availability of the meager pasture there and degrade the already deteriorated natural rangelands. Furthermore, due to the low water levels at the Dokan and Derbendikhan reservoirs, there will be limited hydroelectric generation, and the electricity cuts will also have serious negative impact on poultry production. Summer cereal, orchard and vegetable crops will also be adversely affected due to the falling watertables in the shallow wells, the limited or non-existant water flows from small streams, rivers and springs, as well as shortages in electricity. Social and economic implications will also be severe resulting in the migration of farm labour to urban cities. Income generation will decrease and cost of animal feed supplements will sky rocket, affecting the availability and affordability of dairy products, and livestock and poultry meat.
The effect of drought on cereal crops such as wheat and barley, include shortening of the growth period of the plants. In this situation, harvesting will become difficult. The process of cutting or windrow pick- up by combine harvesters can not be carried out perfectly. The operator will be obliged to lower the equipment (i.e. cutting platform) causing it to pick up stones and other foreign materials in addition to having a bad effect on engine performance. The drought also has effects on the quality and size of the grains. The grains obtained will be weak and light which are easily damaged (broken and cracked). All these combined will increase the percentage of grain losses. The output efficiency of the combine harvesters will be greatly reduced.
The severe drought of this winter in the region is exceptional, as such a drought has never occurred for more than 120 years (The date of registration of meteorological data). This drought has an enormous negative effect on the reforestation activities and on raising forestry seedlings in the nurseries. The rainfall needed for, natural forests is not less than 500 mm. The effect on the forestry could be concluded as follows:
2. Irrigation: Overview
Central and South
In brief the overview of irrigated agriculture outlook during the forthcoming season is as follows:
Central and South
In assessing the priorities the following considerations have to be taken into account:
This paper includes different proposed interventions under four categories and they are as follows:
Central and South
The Ministry of Agriculture's emergency and short term intervention measures included the following proposals:
The main MOA proposal for medium and long terms actions included the following:
4.1 Emergency Measures
Rapid Field Surveys
In order to quantify the magnitude of the damage, and to identify the most seriously effected areas, a rapid field survey with the participation of the Ministry of Agriculture and other relevant ministries should be immediately carried out. The result of a reliable, joint GOI and UN specialized agencies survey is crucial, if any appeal for funds is to be planned. In regard to the Agricultural sector, FAO propose's a rapid field survey in the Governorates of Salah Al-Din, Ninewah, Taameem, Diyala, Anbar and Basrah, The Qar, Muthana, Dohuk, Erbil and Suleimaniya. [proposed work plan in annex (1)].
A. Water availability:
B. Rehabilitation of the infrastructure in the following priority areas:
We suggest that FAO and other agencies first attempt to attract financing for a programme for formulating policy and strategy, including issues such as decentralisation, involvement of the private sector, irrigation management transfer and cost recovery. This requires a number of awareness building workshops, where experience gained in other countries can be transferred.
Formulation and implementation of a sound water resources policy and strategy require a unified and coordinated approach. The partnership between FAO and UNDP can provide a well coordinated and cost effective support to GOI. In the irrigation sector, the support from the Water Resources Development and Management Service of the Land and Water Development Division (AGLW) of FAO which has carried out many such seminars, should be mobilized.
The Three Northern Governorates:
Proposed Emergency Measures
Awareness Campaign
The Government of Iraq had in past drought periods generously supported the farming community in the three northern governorates by free distribution of certified wheat and barley seeds, fertilizers plus animal feed (barley). While the imposed sanctions do not permit the level of past interventions, at least a modest assistance may be requested from the GOI to include:
In order to secure drinking water for both domestic and livestock purposes, rehabilitation of the existing sources is necessary.
Water Resources
Focus on drilling a new set of deep wells in areas where ground water resources are sufficient. An experienced hydro-geologist would have to be in charge for drilling. He could be a local or one from the neighboring countries. This will allow greater flexibility, easier to organize and eventually be more economical.
Animal Feed
Agencies should examine their budget and funds that can be used to combat the effects of drought should be submitted to the Committee (preparing and implementing drought strategy) to be incorporated in the planning for mitigating the effects of drought.
Agencies should consider medium and long term measures through UNSCR 986/95 resources, as well as the regular programmes, and other available funds.
UNOHCI/FAO interventions:
The intervention required to cope with the massive needs of the agricultural sector: combined with the effect of the prevailing drought conditions, is of a large scale which is far from being possible to be met from the resources of SCR 986 programme.
To forestall the reversal of the achievements so far secured under the agricultural sector of SCR 986, budget allocations from the DP-V- Second Tranche Allocation must allow flexibility in the procurement of the prime concern inputs and should not be limited to provision of the items already approved within the DP-V- Distribution Plan.
In this regard, projects proposed for funding under the DP-V Second
Tranche Allocations should address the critical areas with wider coverage,
which would result in significant positive impact. The projects aim is
to arrest widespread, drastic and appalling crisis. The first four projects
are funded from the agricultural sector allocations, while the allocation
for the fifth project (food processing) will come from the nutrition sector
(see Table below): -
Agricultural Projects for Dohuk, Erbil and Suleimaniyah
Under DP-V- Second Tranche Allocation
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1. | Irrigation Supplies and Equipment |
13,000,000
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2. | Animal Production and Health |
6,500,000
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3. | Agricultural Production and Protection-Wheat and Barley Seed |
9,000,000
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4. | Poultry Production |
11,000,000
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5. | Rehabilitation of Food processing Industry |
500,000
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Total Estimated Budget |
40,000,000
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4.3 Medium Term Intervention:
ANNEX 1
Proposed measures (Emergency Measures)
Objective: to determine the degree of damage and to identify the most effective areas for support.Work Plan
Carry out a rapid field survey in the following Locations:
Salah Al-Din province : North Beage 2 Teams Diyalah 1 Team Ninewah 6 Teams Dohuk 2 Teams Erbil 3 Teams Suleimaniya 6 Teams Muthanna 2 Teams Basrah 2 Teams Thiqar 2 Teams Anbar 3 Teams Teams will undertake the following tasks:
The team will include staff from the localities and representative of different relevant departments. Team will be headed or under the supervision of one the Ministry of Agriculture staff, as well as representative from UN agencies if it is possible..
- Rapid inventory of animal resource
- Evaluation of range condition
- Surveying the available drinking water
- Examine the crop situation
- Determine the emergency need
- Evaluate the irrigation situation including water availability and problems related to the irrigation systems.
The exercise should not take more than ten days.
Each team will cover a defined areas and each of its member will be charged with a defined task.
The team should meet in the evening and produce a daily report. The daily report will be compiled by the team and a consolidated report will be produced within a maximum of two days.
Requirements
Central and South
Transport at least 30, 4 wheel driveVehicle need to hiredAllowance 7 X 10 X 20Food allowance
Stationary
Miscellaneous
ANNEX 2
Livestock at risk in the Northern Governorates
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Erbil | Area A* | Qustapa, Ainkawa, Khabat, Banaslawa | 250415 | 95406 | 26150 | 34.1 |
Area B** | Koinsinjak, Shaqlawa, Taq-Taq, Salahaddin | 185075 | 153995 | 33725 | 34.1 | |
Area C*** | Soran, Barzan, Mergasor, Khalifan, Choman | 106510 | 200590 | 40040 | 31.8 | |
Sub-Total | 542000 | 449991 | 99915 | 100% | ||
Suleimaniya | Area A | Kalar, Chamchamal, Darbandikhan, Kifree, Qoratoo, Maydan, Tangarw, Kadir Karam, Shwan | 446000 | 250000 | 21000 | 42.25 |
Area B | Sarchinar, Bazian, Khalakan, Bingird, Dokan, Qaradagh, Bakrajo | 110000 | 100000 | 70000 | 16.5 | |
Area C | Halabja, Penjween, Ranian, Qladiza, Chwarta, Mawat, Barzinja | 300000 | 250000 | 150000 | 41.25 | |
Sub-Total | 856000 | 600000 | 241000 | 100% | ||
Dokan | Area A | Malta, Summel, Batel | 130960 | 67106 | 6237 | 23 |
Area B | Akra, Shekhan, Bardarash, Nahla | 253255 | 154831 | 51110 | 53 | |
Area C | Amadia, Zakho | 78531 | 80364 | 10914 | 24 | |
Sub-Total | 462746 | 302301 | 68261 | 100% |
** Area B: 50% risk of livestock starvation (Between Low Plain and Mountainous)
*** Area C: No risk of livestock starvation (Mountainous Areas)
**** Estimated livestock in the region (1,770,746 sheep, 1,352,292 goats and 409,176 cattle)
Transhumance livestock present 500,000 influx rate at 20,000-50,000
per day
ANNEX 3
Poultry Houses Electricity Requirement
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Erbil | Qushtapa |
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9 Mega watt |
1342500
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Ainkawa |
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1.8 Mega watt
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270000
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Khabat |
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1.6 Mega watt
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240000
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Koisinjaq |
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1.1 Mega watt
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165000
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Bnaslawa |
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0.65 Mega watt
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97500
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Salahaddin |
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200 K.V.A
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30000
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Hareer |
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100 K.V.A
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15000
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14.45 Mega watt
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2160000
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Suleimaniya | Tanjaro Arb |
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4.25 Mega watt
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850000
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Bazian |
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1.9 Mega watt
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380000
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Bakrajo |
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1.55 Mega watt
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310000
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Chamchamal |
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0.85 Mega watt
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170000
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Dokan |
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0.6 Mega watt
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120000
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Darbandikhan |
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0.5 Mega watt
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100000
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Kalar |
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0.45 Mega watt
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90000
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Rania |
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0.3 Mega watt
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60000
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Kifri |
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100 K.V.A.
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20000
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Halabja |
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50 K.V.A.
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10000
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14.55 Mega watt
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2110000
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Dohuk | Summel |
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7 Mga Watt
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1235000
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Zakho |
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100 K.V.A.
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15000
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7.1 Mega watt
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1250000
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Total |
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36.1
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5520000
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ANNEX 4
Water Conservation schemes for summer crops
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Dohuk |
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Erbil |
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Suleimaniya |
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Water trucking and watering points required for livestock
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Dohuk | Malta, Sumial, Batel, Aqra, Shekhan, Bardarash, Nahla |
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Erbil | Qushtapa, Ainkawa, Khabat, Banaslawa, Koysinjaq, TaqTaq, Salahaddin, Shaqlawa |
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Suleimaniyah | Kalar, Chamchamal, Kifree, Qoratoo, Maydan, Sngarw, Kadir, Karam, Shwan, Srchinar, Bazian, Qaradagh, Bakrajo |
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