The following is an archived copy of a message sent to a Discussion List run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq.
Views expressed in this archived message are those of the author, not of the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq.
[Main archive index/search] [List information] [Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq Homepage]
Eric's statistical breakdown is a useful exercise, and it makes a valuable campaigning tool to begin discussions on Iraq. However, I'm really not so sure the actual figures. In short, the figures on OIP are only for arrivals in South / Central Iraq (coming out of the ESB / 59% account), except for food & health supplies which are reimbursed separately from ESC for bulk purchasing: a total of $1.04bn was reimbursed from ESC (ie the Northern governorates) to ESB (S/C Iraq) up to 9 May 01, according to latest SG report from earlier this month (see para.17); also oil spares were so reimbursed ($138m). The separate figure for the Northern governorates ($610m) accounts for housing, electricity, water / sanitation &c in the Northern governorates. If one assumes the population balance has remained at 1996 levels, then the 3 governorates contain 13% of the population. If the total population is 22 million (I think it's probably slightly higher), this makes the population in the three Northern governorates 2.86 million (there's good reason to imagine it may be less, though). That means the area under GoI control contains 19.1 million. As a result, the figures for the population in South / Central Iraq should read: > - Food $305 (including items purchased for the three > northern governorates by Govt of Iraq under bulk > arrangements countrywide) Slightly more complicated: this figure excludes food purchasing by the Northern governorates outside the bulk purchasing arrangements. It should, then, be slightly higher. > - Food handling $25 For S/C, if total in ESB orders is divided by 19.1m, would come to $29. > - Health $56 (including items purchased for the three > northern governates by Govt of Iraq under bulk arrangements > countrywide) As with food, above. > - Oil spares $30 Agreed. > - Electricity $29 £33, and so on. The Northern governorates figure can be calculated from the amount reimbursed from ESC (in the SG's report, up to May01) plus 610m (only valid up to end of March) = 1.79bn + whatever has been ordered independently in April & May. If that latter figure is assumed to be small, it would amount to $625 per person. By the way - one item that we don't cite often enough - the total amount allocated to the compensation fund alone ($12.34bn, according to SG2001/505 Annex I, 2c; up to end of April) is still probably greater than the total value of the goods that have arrived in Iraq throughout the whole of OFF ($12.1bn, up to end of March). Furthermore, the operating expenses of the Compensation Commission (ie lawyers' & experts' fees) is four times the total value of imports under the whole OFF programme in the transport and telecommunications sector. If you spot any flaws in this analysis, please let me know. Best wishes Glen. -- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- This is a discussion list run by the Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq For removal from list, email soc-casi-discuss-request@lists.cam.ac.uk Full details of CASI's various lists can be found on the CASI website: http://www.casi.org.uk